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The large-scale exercises Iran is currently conducting to test its air-defense network and assess its ability to protect its nuclear facilities appear to be little more than a show of defiance against the United States, Israel and Russia, its longtime key arms supplier.
Without the advanced S-300PMU missiles that a fickle Moscow refuses to deliver, presumably because the Kremlin finds it more advantageous to extract concessions from the Americans, Iran's strategic targets are highly vulnerable to air and missile strikes.
Indeed, as the United States and its Western allies consider imposing a package of harsh economic sanctions on Tehran for its apparent refusal to abandon its uranium enrichment program, this missile diplomacy appears to have put Moscow in a pivotal position.
According to an assessment published by Asia Times Online: "If Israel does attempt an airstrike against Iran's nuclear program, it will do so in response to the visible failure of American diplomacy, and with the tacit permission of Russia -- which has the capacity to veto such a strike by giving Iran anti-aircraft missiles of sufficient capability (or by not giving Israel the key to the countermeasures, for Russia never sells a weapons system to another country that it cannot neutralize.)"
Russia agreed to provide Iran with the S-300, which can detect and intercept multiple aircraft and missiles up to 100 miles away, under a 2007 contract worth an estimated $800 million.
The mobile, truck-mounted system is also purported to be immune to electronic jamming, a key component of U.S. and Israeli strike doctrine.
But, as far as is known, Moscow has so far failed to deliver any S-300s to the Islamic Republic, whose best air-defense weapons are short-range Russian Tor-M1 missiles.
These are markedly inferior to the long-range, high-altitude S-300s and no match for U.S. or Israeli aircraft and ballistic missiles. U.S. officials say the S-300s would be a "game-changer."
The United States and Israel have not ruled out pre-emptive military strikes against Iran if the Americans fail to secure a diplomatic settlement on the thorny issue of Iran's nuclear program.
Washington says this masks a drive for nuclear weapons; Tehran insists its intention is solely to generate electricity.
Tehran has become increasingly agitated at Moscow's failure to deliver any S-300s. On Sunday the hard-line defense minister, Ahmad Vahidi, publicly urged Russia to comply with the 2007 contract.
He said Moscow should have started delivery six months ago but apparently caved in to Western pressure not to do so. Russia claims "technical problems" caused the delay.
The armed forces chief, Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, lamented: "We are unhappy with the Russian friends up north. ... Don't the Russian strategists take into consideration Iran's geopolitical importance?"
The five-day Modafean (Defenders) exercises that began Sunday were only announced the day before, indicating that they were probably hastily organized to demonstrate Iran's military readiness to meet any threat.
According to Iranian officials, they cover some 240,000 miles of territory in central, western and southern Iran. That's about one-third of the Islamic Republic and encompasses regions where key facilities in Iran's nuclear program are believed to be located.
The spokesman for the exercises, Brig. Gen. Ali Mogiseh, disclosed that the first stage, held Sunday, involved testing several radar systems.
Iran's French-built Mirage F-1 fighters, former Iraqi air force jets impounded after the 1991 Gulf War, acted as attacking aircraft opposed by U.S.-built F-5 aircraft acquired by the late shah of Iran in the 1970s.
However, none of the Iranian air force's estimated 300 aging combat aircraft, starved of spare parts and upgrades because of U.S.-led arms embargoes, are considered a match for U.S. and Israeli strike aircraft.
Other stages reportedly will involve countermeasures against "jamming and electronic warfare" and dealing with possible chemical, biological and nuclear attacks.
The exercises have been accompanied by a barrage of bellicose statements warning Israel in particular against mounting any assault.
Mojtaba Zolnour, a cleric who represents Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, warned: "If the enemy should want to try its luck in Iran, before the dust from its missiles settles in this country, Iran's ballistic missiles will explode in the heart of Tel Aviv."
The recent Juniper Cobra missile defense exercise conducted by the United States and Israel in Israel earlier this month indicated otherwise.
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