|
Uganda Defence and Security Report Q4 2009
Despite the arrival of peace to the country’s north after two decades of insurgency, Uganda continues to face an unpredictable and complex security situation, particularly in light of upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in 2011. In September 2009, violent riots with a political and ethnic character paralysed the country’s capital for several days, boding ill for a smooth run-up to the 2011 polls. And while the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) may not currently operate on Ugandan soil, it still exists as a destabilising regional force. Elsewhere, a major crackdown on violent cattle raids in eastern Uganda has seen more than 80 Karamojong warriors killed by the army in 2009, and a dispute with Kenya over an island in Lake Victoria continues to smoulder.
As many as 21 people were killed in several days of violent riots in Kampala and outlying districts in September 2009, after police barred the ruling monarch of the historical Buganda kingdom from visiting a volatile town in the territory that he claims as part of his kingdom. This longstanding land dispute between the government and the Buganda, as well as complex legal relations with the three other historical kingdoms, could again boil over. Reports also suggest that the opposition is using such issues as a means for mobilising opinion against the government. Meanwhile, rights groups criticised the police for a heavy-handed response to the clashes. BMI believes that further civil disturbances and violent clashes are likely in the extended run-up to the 2011 polls.
Following the joint military operation launched against the rebel LRA by Uganda, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in December 2008, and the brutal reprisals in north east Congo and South Sudan, LRA activity has continued at an intermittent, but substantial, level. The LRA formerly operated entirely within Uganda, terrorising the civilian population of the north for over 20 years, but shifted its base to north east Congo in 2005. Operation Lightning Thunder came after LRA leader Joseph Kony repeatedly failed to turn up at the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement negotiated through 2006-2008. The attack destroyed LRA bases in Congo’s Garamba National Park and killed a number of rebels, but the majority of the force was scattered across the region, massacring as they went.
Numerous attacks by suspected LRA elements continue to be reported in northeastern Congo, South Sudan and eastern Central African Republic (CAR). While the Ugandan government declared the operation a success, it is believed that although it was a blow to the rebel group, the attack did not remove the LRA threat. Instead, reports suggest that the force is now better armed and larger, following a fresh campaign of abductions across the region, and that its fighters are increasingly drawn from Congo, CAR and South Sudan. While no LRA attacks have been reported in northern Uganda since Operation Lightning Thunder, the rebel group remains a concern for both the government and citizens of the north, many of whom have returned home after years in displaced persons camps.
The Ugandan army has reportedly killed more than 80 Karamojong warriors since the start of 2009, as it seeks to crack down on the tribesmen’s deadly raids. The crackdown came as the frequency of cattle raids was stepped up, with the rainy season helping to cover the raiders’ tracks. After failed voluntary disarmament exercises, the armed forces have been forcibly disarming the semi-nomadic group.
The row between Kenya and Uganda over Migingo Island in Lake Victoria continued to smoulder through the quarter, as the joint boundary survey, launched in June 2009, quickly hit a stalemate over a procedural disagreement. The two countries’ foreign ministers are yet to meet to resolve the dispute and reactivate the survey, the mandate for which has already expired.
Uganda lacks an established indigenous defence industry and its armed forces are almost entirely dependent upon procurement from overseas. This reliance has left the Ugandan armed forces underequipped and reliant on obsolete, ageing equipment, with the government unable to procure modern hardware due to economic limitations. This scenario is unlikely to change in the near future given Uganda’s relatively weak economy and widening balance of trade deficit. Military spending has continued to increase in real terms, but growth in expenditure is likely to stabilise at 3.5% per annum over the coming years.
Uganda Defence and Security Report Q4 2009: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=68SCT281F163479
|
—
