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Iran Power Report Q4 2009
The new Iran Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 16.31% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013. The MEA power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,561TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 30.14% between 2008 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,453TWh, implying 37.59% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 93.1% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran’s thermal generation in 2008 was around 198TWh, or 17.45% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 15.74% of regional thermal generation.
For Iran, gas was the dominant fuel in 2008, accounting for 55.1% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 43.3% and hydro with a 0.9% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 887.6mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 20.7% growth over the period since 2008. Iran’s 2008 market share of 26.10% is set to remain around this level to 2013. Iran’s nuclear demand is forecast to reach 8TWh by 2013, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 32.0%.
Iran is now ranked fourth in the updated Power Business Environment rating. This reflects its market size and relatively high proportion of renewables (hydro-power) use. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive and the risk outlook is suffering thanks to the controversy over the country’s nuclear energy programme. We see scope for a reduced score and a drop down the rankings during the next few quarters.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth for Iran averaging 3.24% per annum between 2009-2013, with the 2009 growth estimate being 1.40%. The population is expected to expand from 72.2mn to 77.2mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase 33% and 17%, respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 182TWh in 2008 to 228TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing export potential rising from an estimated 24TWh in 2008 to 27TWh in 2013, assuming 4.5% annual growth in electricity generation. Losses during power transmission and distribution mean that the actual level of Iranian power exports is well below the theoretical surplus, but is set to rise.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Iranian electricity generation of 47.3%, which is near the middle of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 19.3% in the 2013-2018 period, down from 23.4% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to decrease from 20.5% in 2008-2013 to 16.7%, representing 40.7% for the entire forecast period. The availability from 2010 of nuclear power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 37.3% between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
Iran Power Report Q4 2009: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=54RZ04LQC163471
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