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BMI's proprietary Drug Expenditure Forecast Model reveals that the Kenyan pharmaceutical market will return to a double-digit growth rate in 2009 (in local currency terms), after declining to single-digit growth the previous year. During 2008, OTC and prescription medicine sales reached KES17.7bn (US$0.229bn), up from KES14.4bn (US$0.215bn) in 2007. This represented a 9.6% growth in local currency terms and a 6.7% growth in US dollar terms, down from the 13.2% and 21.5% growth rates achieved during 2007. By 2014, it is believed that the Kenyan drug market will reach a value of KES33.48bn (US$0.650bn), equating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.53% in local currency terms and 22.8% in US dollar terms. By 2019, BMI expects the pharmaceutical market to have reached a value of KES57.2bn (US$1.49bn), a 2009-2019 CAGR of 26.35% in Kenyan shilling terms and a staggering 45.0% in US dollar terms.
In BMI's Business Environment Ratings for Q110, despite Kenya's overall pharmaceutical rating improving marginally to reach a value of 33.8, compared with its Q409 rating of 32.2, the East African country has dropped one place in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region to 16th place. Kenya is therefore above Zimbabwe, but below Algeria and Nigeria. Globally, Kenya is ranked in 70th position (also falling one place in Q110).
In October 2009, it was revealed that Kenya is facing a nationwide shortage of anti-retrovirals (ARVs) because the High Court barred the Ministry of Health from procuring them. A consortium of drug suppliers challenged the Public Procurement Administrative Review Board's decision to force KEMSA to accept tender documents from an Indian drugmaker, Hetero Drugs Limited, and start the tender process afresh. KEMSA had rejected the Indian company's tender documents as they allegedly did not comply with procurement rules.
In October 2009, it was revealed that the Breast Cancer Association and other stakeholders were urging the government to implement a Cancer Control Bill to improve treatment in the country. The association's vice chairman said the Bill would force the government to allocate resources for an autonomous cancer unit that would deal with the treatment, diagnosis and research into cancer. The Bill would also enable the creation of an institute which would not have to rely on World Health Organization (WHO) statistics and the Nairobi Council Registry, which only collects data from public hospitals.
Meanwhile, the acting director of KEMRI (the government body responsible for health research), said that it was operating on an annual budget of KES4bn (US$0.05bn), against the required KES9bn (US$0.12bn). He said that the budget deficit could be met by a mix of public and private partnerships, and not solely by an increase in government funding.
Kenya Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=S3780UKP5169589
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