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In this report, BMI forecasts that Venezuela will account for 11.04% of Latin America regional power generation by 2013. BMI's Latin America power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,125 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 3.4% over the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,322twh by 2013, representing a rise of 17.6%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 438twh, accounting for 38.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 530twh, implying 21.0% growth, increasing the market share of thermal generation to 40.1% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Venezuela's thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 35.4twh, or 8.08% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 8.35% of thermal generation.
For Venezuela, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 37.5% of 2007 primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 35.9%, and hydro-electric energy with a 26.6% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 718mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 14.7% growth.
Venezuela's estimated 2008 market share of 11.92% is set to rise to 12.27% by 2013.
Venezuela is now ranked sixth and last, behind even Mexico, in BMI's power sector Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its likely energy demand growth, considerable generating capacity and low level of energy import dependency. The underdeveloped competitive landscape, regulatory issues and asset renationalisation conspire with country risk factors to deliver a particularly low score that may be enough over the longer term to keep Mexico out of reach.
BMI is now forecasting Venezuelan average annual real GDP growth of just 0.25% between 2008 and 2013, with a decline of 5.6% forecast in 2009. Population is expected to expand from 28.3mn to 31.0mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to increase by 9%. Electricity consumption per capita is expected to fall by 0.3% during the period. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 104twh in 2008 to 113twh by 2013, providing continued theoretical export potential on the basis of 2.7% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Venezuelan electricity generation of 48.4%, which is around the middle of the range for the Latin America region. This equates to 27.0% in the 2013- 2018 period, up from 16.8% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 18.0% in 2008-2013 to 24.5% in 2013-2018, representing 46.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 46.3% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 57.1% between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
Venezuela Power Report Q3 2009: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=EMOPL8M1T154316
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