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In this updated report, the report forecasts that Colombia will account for 4.88% of Latin American regional power generation by 2013, with a theoretical generation surplus that may still require imports on occasion, particularly if drought conditions impact the vital hydro-power segment. The Latin America power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,130 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.5% over the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,320TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 16.9%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated at 453TWh, accounting for 40.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 523TWh, implying 15.5% growth, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 39.6% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Colombia’s thermal generation in 2008 was around 10.5TWh, or 2.31% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 2.76% of thermal generation.
For Colombia, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 35.5% of 2008 primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro at 32.6%, gas at 24.3% and coal with a 7.5% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 726mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 14.5% growth. Colombia’s 2008 market share of 4.76% is set to rise to 4.90% by 2013. The country’s 43.5TWh of hydro demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 49.5TWh by 2013, with its share of the Latin America hydro market falling from 6.97% to 6.76%.
Colombia is now ranked fourth just behind Argentina in the updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its use of renewable (mostly hydro-power) energy and relatively low energy import dependency. Regulatory issues and privatisation progress beat the regional average, but country risk factors offset some of the industry strength. Over the next several quarters, the country is quite capable of challenging Argentina above it.
The report is now forecasting Colombian average annual real GDP growth of 2.28% between 2009 and 2013, with a decline of 0.4% forecast for 2009. The population is expected to expand from 47.9mn to 51.8mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 38% and 3%, respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 40.5TWh in 2008 to 45.3TWh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a theoretical generation surplus, but occasional power imports will be required if electricity generation grows at our forecast rate of 3.1% per annum.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Colombian electricity generation of 46.8%, which is mid-range for the Latin America region. This equates to 24.0% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 18.4% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 17.9% in 2008-2013 to 21.7% in 2013-2018, representing 43.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 40.2% in hydro-power use during 2008- 2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 74.5% between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
Colombia Power Report Q4 2009: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=ND3JRSUQD166975
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