 |
| |
Although almost all markets across Europe have been hit by the ongoing crisis, the French government has been by far been the most supportive in terms of providing aid to its domestic autos industry. As examined in this, the latest France Autos Report, these measures have placed France in a slightly better-off position than its other European counterparts, especially the UK, Italy and Spain.
According to estimates from the manufacturers' association, the Comité des Constructeurs Français d'Automobiles (CCFA), vehicle production in France declined by a staggering 29.3% year-on-year (y-oy) to approximately 2.13mn at end-2008. The fall mainly came on the back of cost-saving reduced production by domestic manufacturers, a trend which the report expects to continue as long as consumer demand remains low. With the economic analysis expecting growth of -2.4% y-o-y in 2009, followed by a small recovery of 0.2% y-o-y growth in 2010, we do not see any substantial increase in production in those periods. In fact, we warn that French autos production could continue to be eroded by companies moving operations to cheaper Eastern European bases, although the government's five-year loan to carmakers, and their consequent commitments to the country, will ensure that the fall in output is not too drastic. Nevertheless, production is likely to be concentrated on small cars and to be limited to 1.90mn units by the end of our forecast period in 2013.
From the point of view of demand, the report maintains its forecast of a fall in sales despite scrappage incentives announced by the government in December. We expect domestic and export demand to be low, falling by more than 5% and 2% y-o-y, respectively, in 2009. In line with this, Renault SA CEO, Patrick Pelata, revealed that the company will revise its distribution strategy to the ‘build-to-order' technique instead of ‘build-to-stock ‘. This is to avoid accumulation of ageing vehicles at its plant. Another domestic manufacturer, PSA Peugeot Citroën, also revealed its plans to reduce production of its 1007 model by nearly one-third at its plant in Poissy. On top of this, it will cut 1,000 jobs in France this year in line with its CAP 2010 plan.
French carmakers have earned themselves a reputation for developing more environmentally-friendly vehicles, which has helped them increase sales, albeit not significantly. Renault sold 449,334 units, up marginally by 0.6% y-o-y, while PSA sales were up by 1% over 2007 levels. The market has emerged as the strongest in Europe during the downturn, but weaknesses in its country structure mean that it maintains its score of 55.1points (out of a possible of 100) in the Business Environment Ratings for the quarter.
France Autos Report Q2 2009: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=Q2UT42PKF84542
|
—
