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The new Saudi Arabia Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 16.89% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 6.1% over the previous year.
We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,561TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 30.14% between 2008 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,453TWh, implying 37.59% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 93.1% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Saudi Arabia’s thermal generation in 2008 was around 194TWh, or 17.07% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 18.15% of thermal generation.
For Saudi Arabia, in 2008 oil was the dominant fuel, accounting for 59.7% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 40.3%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 887.6mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 20.7% growth over the period since 2008. Saudi Arabia’s 2008 market share of 23.73% is set to rise to 24.61% by 2013.
Saudi Arabia now shares fifth place with South Africa in the updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks largely to its considerable market size, low level of energy import dependency and particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not competitive, with little progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Saudi Arabia has now been left behind by Iran, but has the potential to catch its Gulf rival if risk issues reduce the Iranian score.
There should be little near-term risk to Saudi Arabia from Algeria below.
The report is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 2.72% per annum between 2009 and 2013, with the growth 2009 estimate being 0.50%. The population is expected to expand from 24.4mn to 26.5mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to rise by 5% and 19% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 183TWh in 2008 to 236TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a modest generation surplus, assuming 6.0% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Saudi electricity generation of 91.8%, which is near the top of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 40.9% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 36.1% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to decrease from 25.2% in 2008-2013 to 14.8%, representing 43.7% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 91.8% between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
Saudi Arabia Power Report Q4 2009: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=8U36A4TR4166927
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