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In our Q209 Telecommunications Report for Poland, we have added a new section focused on mobile content. However, we have also left the fixed-line and internet market data analysis sections stagnant, to be updated with additional content in the following quarter.
Poland has one of the most developed mobile sectors in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, with high penetration and advanced EDGE and 3G networks. The tender for a DVB-H licence was won by a transmission company called Info-TV-FM in March 2009, and the company is due to launch services within three months of receiving the allotted frequencies. Meanwhile, the operators are continuing to diversify their revenues away from the tight voice market towards value-added services (VAS), such as mobile TV, game and music downloads, and surfing the web.
At the end of 2008 BMI believes that the Polish mobile market held over 44mn subscribers, giving a penetration of 115.8%. Growth in 2008 slowed considerably from levels seen in 2007, and we expect this trend to continue as the market becomes increasingly saturated. Polkomtel, along with new entrant, P4, was a key driver in this growth. In the fourth quarter of 2008 the former overtook Orange Poland to become the new mobile market leader in terms of subscribers. High penetration, coupled with greater competition from P4 and the dozen or so mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), has resulted in the three largest players Orange, Polkomtel and PTC all placing additional focus on the lucrative postpaid segment and VAS market. PTC and Orange both saw their subscriber bases become increasingly concentrated with contract customers throughout 2008. Polkomtel also found this, despite a worsening subscriber mix in the second half of the year. Now that the latter is the market leader, BMI expects it to return its focus to the postpaid segment. We would not be surprised to see Orange and Polkomtel switching positions as top dog during 2009.
Poland has jumped up to second place in our Business Environment Rankings on the back of an improved Country Risk score. Despite weakening macroeconomic fundamentals, BMI expects Poland to be the regional outperformer. We are forecasting Poland to witness only a mild recession followed by a spritely recovery, which is good news for the telecoms market as operators look to roll out ever more advanced services.
The fixed-line and broadband sectors are continuing to advance with the Office of Electronic Communications (UKE) liberalising the markets and ensuring healthy competition. The regulator is looking to enforce a functional splitting of the incumbent Telekomunikacja Polska (TPSA) into independent retail and wholesale units – in 2010 or 2011 if all goes according to plan. Radio spectrum fees for rural wireless internet providers were slashed and local loop unbundling (LLU) and bitstream access (BSA) fees have been reduced. With a number of strong alternative operators such as Netia, Multimedia Polska and UPC Poland, both sectors look set for robust development throughout 2009.
Poland Telecommunications Report Q2 2009: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=8L0AQLV6M83540
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