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The latest update on the telecommunications market in Vietnam contains new data for the period ending August 2009. Based on the new data, we have been able to assess how the country's mobile fixed-line telephony and internet access markets have been developing over the past few months. The new data has also enabled us to revise our five-year forecasts for each of these different market segments.
The most recent official figures on the size of Vietnam's mobile market relate to the end of 2008.
However, based on figures published by Vietnam's state-owned news agencies, we calculate that the country's mobile user base had climbed to 96.5mn by the end of August 2009; this reflects growth of almost 40% in the first seven months of the year. It is believed that much of this new growth has been driven by tariff cuts by the country's three largest mobile operators, Viettel, which is owned by the Vietnamese military, and MobiFone and Vinaphone, which are both owned by Vietnam's incumbent telecoms company, Vietnam Posts and Telecommunications (VNPT). The lower mobile tariffs introduced by these three operators are expected to stimulate continued growth throughout the rest of 2009. By the end of 2009, we now predict that the mobile customer base will surpass 105,000 users. It is notable that Vietnam's mobile market has continued to expand despite the slowdown that has affected the country's economy.
Meanwhile, the Vietnamese mobile market saw the arrival of its seventh mobile network operator in July.
The launch of commercial operations by GTel, in which Russia's VimpelCom has a major stake, is expected to provide Vietnam's mobile market with an additional boost in the second half of 2009. GTel will offer mobile services in Vietnam under VimpelCom's Beeline brand. According to reports, VimpelCom plans to invest approximately US$1bn in Vietnam over the next several years for the development of GSM-based wireless services.
In August 2009, the winners of Vietnam's three next generation mobile concessions were issued with their licences. The licence recipients of the country's first 3G licences are Viettel, MobiFone, Vinaphone, and a joint venture between EVN Telecom and Hanoi Telecom Company. Although only three network operating licences were issued, Vietnam's authorities have permitted additional operators to partner with one of the four winners to provide 3G services in the country. VimpelCom-backed GTel is understood to be partnering with rival Vinaphone to build a 3G network and provide the relevant services. Furthermore, it was reported in June 2009 that two other companies planned to provide 3G services in partnership with one of the linked network operators: these are said to be state-run company Vietnam Multimedia Corporation (VTC) and local firm Dong Duong.
According to the latest data from Vietnam's Internet Network Information Centre (VNNIC), the number of Vietnamese internet users grew by 4.7% in the first seven months of 2009 to reach 21.8mn at the end of August. The VNNIC's figures suggest that 2009 will be a slower year for growth than 2008. The VNNIC has also reported a 31.5% increase in the number of broadband subscribers in the first seven months of 2009. By the end of 2009, the report now envisages a market of nearly 3.1mn broadband subscribers, which will be equivalent to a penetration rate of 3.6%.
Vietnam has dropped from 16th to 17th position in the latest set of Business Environment Ratings table for Asia. This is in spite of receiving a higher score in both the telecoms market and country risk categories. Vietnam has moved down our table as a result of an improved performance from Thailand.
Vietnam Telecommunications Report Q4 2009: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=1O0870361168899
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