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The report estimates that, by the end of 2008, the number of mobile customers in Vietnam had risen to over 75mn. Our estimates are based on latest data to be published by Vietnam's Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC), operators and local press reports. It is estimated that there were around 57mn subscribers in September 2008, and some 51.6mn in June 2008.
Viettel, owned by the Vietnamese military, continued to lead the Vietnamese mobile market, with a market share of around 37.2%, a 0.6pps fall over the second half of 2008, according to information published by the operator. Figures for major rivals, the next largest mobile operators, MobiFone and VinaPhone, were reported at an estimated 22mn and 16mn, respectively. Collectively, together with smaller operators Vietnamobile (formerly HT Mobile), S-Phone and E Mobile, 39.515mn net additions were made to the market.
Strong growth during 2008, despite the global recession, came as a direct result of a reduction in mobile tariffs and the competitive pricing of tariffs. Furthermore, it came about despite the increase in mobile handset prices and re-registration of prepaid SIM cardholders. Growth into 2009 is not expected to be as robust, largely due to the economic recession taking its toll, although GDP growth will register an increase of 3%, which remains lower than the 5-6% enjoyed just a few years earlier.
That said, the introduction of a seventh operator, GTel, to the market in early 2009, alongside the relaunch of Vietnamobile, which will offer GSM (rather than CDMA) services should provide for greater competition in the mobile sector. The report has revised its forecasts for the year to reach a little over 75mn subscribers in 2009, and a penetration rate of 115%, before rising to meet our end of period forecast in 2013, with a rate of 179%.
The still-rising number of mobile subscribers in Vietnam, accounting for 85% of the total population, is demonstrative of the high demand for mobile services in the country. In our newly introduced mobile content section, we take a look at the issues facing the sector. Of note, has been the rise in unwanted SMS messages, used to target customers by content providers and customers for advertising their services. In view of this new section, we have retained our existing fixed-line and internet market data analysis sections.
Vietnam Telecommunications Report Q2 2009: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=3B377I46G84548
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