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Egypt Tourism Report Q4 2009
Tourism Overview After buoyant, but somewhat weaker, growth in foreign visitor arrivals to Egypt in 2008, the tourism sector has experienced a significant downturn so far this year. Official data show that tourist numbers declined by 8.7% in the first half of 2009, compared with the corresponding period last year, while tourism revenue is reported to have fallen by 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). However, the data show some improvement compared with Q109, when tourist arrivals were down by 12% y-o-y and revenues were 17% weaker than Q108.
Bird And Swine Flu Updates According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of the beginning of August 2009, Egypt had confirmed 27 human deaths caused by the H5N1 bird flu virus, out of 83 known human infections in Egypt – the largest number outside Asia. Infections have continued to edge up this year, with 32 people infected in the first seven months of 2009. As regards the H1N1 swine flu virus, Egypt had reported 78 cases of the virus and no deaths as of early July 2009.
Forecast Scenario This quarter, the report has adjusted up its forecast for foreign visitor arrivals, and we now expect an annual decline of 11% in 2009 – sizeable, but less significant than our previous forecast of -16% y-o-y – to about 11.4mn visitors. A slight pick up in arrivals is anticipated in 2010, with relatively strong growth from 2011. The downturn and recovery broadly mirror economic conditions in key source markets, especially the eurozone, Russia, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and the UK. Added to this background and compared with our previous forecasts, we now anticipate continued weakness of the Egyptian pound throughout 2009, helping the country’s competitiveness as a tourist destination. By contrast, however, the report forecasts modest appreciation of the pound against the euro and the US dollar during 2010.
EgyptAir From October 2009, the Egypt’s national flag carrier EgyptAir will start new flights between Cairo and Almaty, Kazakhstan, operating four flights per week.
Kempinski Hotels The Geneva-based hotel company Kempinski Hotels has announced the launch a second property in Egypt. The hotel company has signed a management agreement for the Kempinski Hotel el-Nil in Cairo.
It is under construction and scheduled to open in November 2009.
Egypt Tourism Report Q4 2009: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=8138F7HQD159455
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